As the clock approaches zero in March, no player, coach, or team is safe from the beloved buzzer-beater. The last-minute mayhem in the NCAA tournament is unlike any sports entertainment worldwide. I’ll never forget watching the nonstop 2016 tournament mania with two of my best friends down in Charleston during spring break. Those couple days of first and second round games were the most memorable and exciting moments in sports I have witnessed live. From Northern Iowa’s back-and-forth win against 6-seed Texas, to Stephen F. Austin’s win over 3-seed West Virginia, and the utter collapse of the 2-seed Michigan State Spartans against Middle Tennessee, every game delivered on the promise of madness.
This year hopes to bring the same magic and misery as 2016, all the way down to the wire. Upsets in March Madness make the tournament special. The absence of them is what creates a mundane and boring narrative for fans and sports writers. Before we dive into possible upsets and Cinderella’s, let’s go over some statistics to help us contextualize each pick and team.
For the most part, and I’m holding my breath here since recent memory hasn’t been too kind, but 1 seeds are locked in to head to the second round (unless you’re UVA or Purdue). They have a 98.7% chance to advance to round 2 and a 84.2% chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. So, if you’re playing the odds, these teams are no-brainers for the 16th birthday. As we go down the line, 2 seeds have a 92.8% chance to advance, 3 seeds have an 85.5% chance, 4 seeds have a 78.9% chance, and so on (link to chart). What fascinates me is the 8-seed and 9-seed odds. They are practically 50/50 (duh), but the 9-seeds edge the 8s out boasting a 51.3% probability to advance. But, they only have a 5.3% chance to advance to the Sweet Sixteen compared to an 8 seeds 10.5% chance. Interesting right? So, what is the point of all these percentages and numbers and seeds? Well, you want to win your bracket pool and possibly the cash that goes along with it (better luck next year loser). Therefore, understanding the percentages, outliers, and odds for teams to advance is key when making your picks. Now, here are our upset and Cinderella picks based on percentages, odds, uniforms, mascots, and complete shots in the dark.
Upsets:
(15) Long Beach State over (2) Arizona
Full transparency, this is a total storyline selection from me. If you haven’t yet heard of the Long Beach State Beach (yes, their team name is the Beach), they’ve been getting a lot of buzz recently after the athletics department decided to fire Head Coach Dan Monson last Monday just before the Big West tournament. Long Beach State decided to let Monson finish out the season as head coach, as they had a 10-10 conference record and it didn’t appear like they’d be doing much in the conference tournament. But Monson and the Beach responded to that decision in a big way by turning around and winning the Big West title and locking down a spot in the tournament. Their draw is not an easy one, as they’re facing a top ten team in the country in 2-seeded Arizona, but I (and I imagine most of the country) will be rooting for the Beach to pull off the upset just to see whether or not it forces the school to re-hire the head coach they fired just a week and a half ago. I won’t go very deep into the underlying statistics of this matchup, as all you really need to know is Arizona’s ranked the 4th best team in the country in the NET rankings and Long Beach State is ranked 170th, but ladies and gentlemen this is March, and we all know anything can happen in March. -Ross
Grand Canyon: Sweet Sixteen
I feel this team going to the 3rd round this year. They have a mix of veteran players who have tournament experience against stellar ball clubs, and have proven scorers who should consistently score from the field. In addition to their roster, head coach Bryce Drew has found sustained success with GC. They might struggle with Saint Mary’s strong defense, but if they can shoot well from outside the arc, I have them facing a dominant UNC team later on. Historically, 12 seeds have a 34.9% chance to move onto the next round and a 14.5% chance to get to the Sweet Sixteen. I think the Lope’s have all of the intangibles to make a run this year. Also, their mascot is a darn Antelope (lope), which is just phenomenal. -Reese
Colgate: Round of 32
I have Colgate beating Baylor for a variety of reasons. I think underdog tournament teams need proven leaders and specifically hold strong at the point guard position. Colgate’s Braeden Smith is both of those. Now, I hate Colgate for a multitude of reasons that include underlying beef as well as their dominance over Bucknell in recent memory, but you can’t deny their ability to play fundamental ball. Their mix of ball handlers and tall white guys who take up space feels like a recipe for success in NCAA tournament play. -Reese
(12) James Madison over (5) Wisconsin
If I had to guess, (12) James Madison over (5) Wisconsin is probably one of the most picked first round upsets. The trendy Dukes currently hold the country’s longest winning streak at 13 games, haven’t lost a game since late January, and have only lost three games all year. They came out of the gates hot with an overtime win against preseason top-5 team Michigan State, and have steamrolled their opponents ever since. With that being said, their strength of schedule is a Charmin UltraSoft 325th in the country, and they’re playing against a Wisconsin team that has been put through the gauntlet all year (4th best SoS per CBS). Despite sliding at the end of regular season play, Wisconsin had a nice little run of their own in the Big Ten tournament, knocking off top-seeded Purdue in overtime in a 76-75 semifinal win, before falling to Illinois in the championship game by two possessions. With that being said, I always feel that the tournament comes down to three point shooting, rebounding, and making free throws, and (take this with a grain of salt because of JMU’s weak schedule) it appears that the Dukes have the upper hand in at least two of those categories with a higher team 3 point percentage (36.5%) and a certified board-getter in Forward T.J. Bickerstaff who averages 8.5 rebounds per game. -Ross
Cinderellas:
NC state: Elite Eight
To me this seems like a really fun team to pick and cheer for. They were full of energy and charisma during the ACC tournament in which they took command and came out of nowhere to win. It is safe to say that they are rolling in with the hot hand to this year’s March Madness. Their big man DJ Burns Jr. is an absolute monster in the paint and weighs in at a staggering 275lbs. In addition to Burns, their best player DJ Horne averages 16.9 ppg, shooting 41% from 3 point range. Alongside the DJ’s, the Pack have a lot of seniors and juniors in their starting rotation. They don’t play outstanding defense, but sometimes the recipe to tournament success is shooting and seniority, both of which the Wolfpack have. I predict them heading to the Elite Eight to face a Houston team that might beat the brakes off them. Historically there is a 5.9% chance they get there, but this is closer to 100% in my brain. -Reese
San Diego State: Final Four
This is an awesome narrative, the same 5 seed San Diego State team will make it back to the final four, just as they did last year. However, this year they won’t be getting any further. So, they have a player named Reese (which automatically advances them to the Sweet Sixteen), and their mascot is an Aztec which is beyond cool. What more do you need?… All jokes aside, they are a terrific basketball team. Their top player, Jaedon LeDee is a certified hooper. He shoots 41% from three and grabs 8.4 rebounds per game. He might be too much to stop this year. I have the Aztecs dancing to the Final Four through Iowa State. All time, 5 seeds are 6-1 against 2’s and I think the trend continues again this year. -Reese
New Mexico: Elite Eight
This one is a shot in the dark, but I think that they can prevail. New Mexico is a solid squad to root for this tournament. They have 4 guys who all average over 12 ppg which could prove to be vital if one gets in foul trouble or locked down. I also think that their path makes sense. Clemson isn’t anything special and I really think the West bracket could be a mess aside from UNC. The Lobos can score the ball efficiently and play middle of the pack defense. Something about this team screams Elite Eight, where they get waxed by UNC after definitively beating Dayton. I feel this one in my bones. In conclusion, the Lobo is an unreal mascot and they have to move far in this tournament. -Reese
South Carolina: Final Four
This team can be a bit all over the place. They have won a lot of games, finishing the season with a 26-7 record, but they have also been demolished and utterly humiliated in some of those 7 L’s. These include a 74-47 loss against Alabama, a 101-61 loss against Auburn and then another loss to Auburn, losing 86-55. However, these games are outliers (hopefully). They have also beat Kentucky and Florida, and I think that something will ignite and they will get hot from beyond the arc and play lockdown defense against all the teams they play. But hey, who knows… this is March. -Reese
Championship picks (setting ourselves up for failure):
Reese: UNC
Yeahh… so I really don’t know who is going to win the tournament. Nor do I really know if any of the upsets or Cinderella’s will happen. But, this just feels like one of those UNC teams that wins, I can’t really quantify it. Here is one number for the nerds out there: 1 seeds win 15.8% of the time. If you divide that percentage by 4 (# of 1 seeds in the tournament) then you get 3.95%. Woohoo, there’s your champion. (maybe)
Ross: Purdue
The last thing we want to be here on this blog is boring, which is why I’m not about to sit down and write a paragraph on why UConn is going to win the tournament again after having the most dominant NCAA tournament run in history last year. Now, I understand that taking a 1-seed in Purdue to win it all isn’t the riskiest decision of all time, but I also think it’s a pretty unpopular pick at this point with how last year’s tournament went for them and given their loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament. Purdue is without a doubt the least-inspiring top-seeded team in the tournament given their recent history which includes a first round loss to 13 seeded North Texas in 2021, a Sweet Sixteen loss to 15 seed Saint Peter’s in 2022, and their historically bad first round loss last year to 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson.
With all that being said, I’m going to start off this pick with an incredibly deep dive into the analytics of why Purdue’s going to win it all – try and stick with me here as this is going to get technical: Number One seeds who lost to a 16 seed in the tournament have gone on to win the National Championship the next year 100% of the time. Statistically speaking, there’s simply no way that Purdue doesn’t bounce back to win it all after their first round exit to Fairleigh Dickinson last year.
In all seriousness, I do believe that unless Purdue is cursed (and they very well might be), they are bound to finally overcome their tournament struggles and actually put up a good postseason performance. With losses to a 13 seed, a 15 seed, and a 16 seed in the last three years, they have nowhere to go but up. Purdue has played like a well oiled machine this year, and they are incredibly balanced with reigning Player of the Year Zach Edey (24.4ppg, 11.7rpg) dominating the paint, as well as the second best team 3-point percentage in the country at 40.8%. Purdue draws a ton of fouls, and as long as they can make their free throws and get enough defensive stops to allow their high-flying offense to take over, I think they’ll be tough to beat (as long as they don’t pull any of their usual shenanigans early in the tournament).
Ultimately, I just want to get it out there that I think Reese and I are both going into this tournament with the understanding that we will more likely than not be dead wrong about every single thing we’ve said here, but that is what makes March Madness so great. Nobody has any clue what is going to happen these next couple weeks, so let’s all just sit back, relax, and spend as much time on the couch watching as much basketball as we possibly can, because this is March.