With about six minutes remaining in the first half of Sunday’s NFC Championship game between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers, Lions Safety CJ Gardner-Johnson waved goodbye to 49ers fans from the sideline as Detroit held a commanding 21-7 lead over the NFC’s top team. What happened in the ensuing 36 minutes left Lions fans in disbelief as their team squandered the largest halftime lead in NFL Conference Championship history and effectively ended the seemingly-cursed franchise’s best chance at a Super Bowl appearance in their long history.
The Lions managed to tack on a 21-yard Michael Badgley field goal in the dying seconds of the first half to take a 24-7 lead, after which point Detroit Head Coach Dan Campbell may as well have told Badgley to head for the team bus. Campbell, whose team has led the NFL in fourth down conversion attempts since he took the reins in 2021, elected not to kick what would have been a 45-yard field goal that, if made, would have put the Lions back up three scores with seven minutes left in the third quarter.
While this particular decision was not surprising, and could even be forgiven given the Lions’ aggressiveness under Campbell, the fourth quarter decision to attempt another 4th and 3, which would have tied the game with seven minutes to play, turned out to be catastrophic. There’s no denying the 49ers offense found their rhythm in the second half, and after Lions Quarterback Jared Goff’s incomplete pass on 4th down, the Niners marched down the field in a 7 play, 70-yard drive to take a 34-24 lead with three minutes remaining. Had Campbell opted for the game-tying field goal, it’s likely that San Francisco would have bled out more clock, but with three timeouts in their back pocket, it certainly would have given Detroit a better opportunity to win than Campbell’s decision to go for it.
The Lions were able to march down the field on their next drive, but another costly decision by Dan Campbell and Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson sealed their fate. The Lions inexplicably ran the ball on a 3rd and goal situation with under a minute to play, forcing Detroit to take their first timeout and ensuring that they would need an onside kick to extend the game, rather than holding on to their timeouts and hoping for a quick Niners three and out. The 2023 regular season onside kick recovery rate was an uninspiring 2-42 in the regular season, and the Lions’ decision to run the ball cost them a chance to potentially be down three with three timeouts, time on the clock and the ball.
In his post-game presser, Campbell stood by his fourth down decisions, telling reporters “I don’t regret those decisions […] I just felt really good about us converting, and getting our momentum”. Ultimately, Campbell’s lack of regret will not (and should not) sit well with Detroit fans, as the most tortured fanbase in the NFL will have to wait yet another year for a chance at their first Super Bowl.
C. Ross Danforth, Contributor, The Undefeated