March Preview Recap: Final Four Predictions

*Apologies for the chaotic scheduling… March Madness has thrown us off. Once it is over expect your regular scheduled program to return. 

This year’s March Madness has hosted some incredible moments and heartbreaking defeats. From last-second panic during the Auburn – Yale game to chaotic, exhausting, and frankly hilarious basketball during the Grand Canyon – Alabama matchup, this year has had it all. Before we dive into some of the genius and not-so-genius takes from me and Ross, let’s do a quick recap. 

It was the March of Oakland’s Jack Golhke after his 10 three-pointers and defeat of #3 seed Kentucky. We also witnessed South Carolina go down to Oregon, Samford get robbed by the refs against Kansas, and NC State’s run for glory. The Sweet Sixteen comprises a diverse group of seeds, states, and mascots. We get to watch some fantastic basketball games starting Thursday and hopefully, they deliver on the magic, energy, and madness to the rest of March. 

Where we were right and wrong:

Reese: I was wrong in so many ways, with a sprinkle of right. To start, I was right about the Grand Canyon upset in the first round and was almost right about them going to the Sweet Sixteen. But, ultimatley, my prediction fell short when the Lopes fully collapsed after a horrible and chaotic offensive performance from both teams. I wish the Lopes were still dancing because they have the most absurd story of all time. A for-profit school, consisting mostly of online undergraduates, they flew thousands of fans out to the game in Spokane, and their stock is worth over $130 a share! An unheard-of combination and bizarre story. Something about it feels like Bishop Sycamore, I guess only time will tell. I was miserably wrong about Colgate advancing and I am really happy about it. They looked outmatched from the jump and stood no chance against the Baylor Bears. Cheers to the yellow and green in this game, I wasn’t sure if I could handle a Colgate win in the first round. Thank the lord. 

I went 2/4 on my Cinderella guesses this year. Let’s start with the bad picks. South Carolina looked abysmal against Oregon in the first round. They didn’t shoot poorly at all either, but they couldn’t hang with Oregon shooting 60% from the field and dominating the boards. I had no doubt watching that game that the Ducks were going to pull through, which was extremely frustrating to witness. But, as a fan of underdogs, it was fun to watch nonetheless. Yikes… New Mexico going to the Elite Eight is a bad..bad pick. They put up a strikingly horrific 29.7% from the field and an unsightly 13% from 3-point range. That might be worse than me, Ross, and our friends last week playing pickup hoops at the local park. To be fair, in my analysis I picked them because “I [felt] it in my bones” and “the Lobo is an unreal mascot”. All tell-tale signs of a Cinderella. Onto the good picks! NC State to the Elite Eight could very well happen. Marquette is beatable. They looked sketchy early on against Western Kentucky and had a hard-fought down-to-the-wire game against the Colorado Buffs. I think with the energy and underdog mentality of the Pack, the game will be close and could end in a DJ Burns Elite Eight appearance. The whole country will be cheering for the Wolfpack Friday, let’s hope they shock the world. Rematch! San Diego State to the Final Four… I’m calling it. They are hungry and angry about last year’s loss to UCONN and would want nothing more than to spoil their spectacular season. I think it will be a close matchup and they both have tremendous athletes and scorers. UCONN is a force, but SDSU can get it done tomorrow night… I’m sure of it. Go Aztecs. 

Ross: All things considered, I’m feeling pretty good about how my picks turned out from the tournament preview. My first pick was an absolute whiff as the Long Beach State Beach simply couldn’t hang with Arizona – after making it somewhat competitive in the first half, Arizona went on to outscore the Beach by 14 in the second half to win 85-65. I was pretty bummed for Head Coach Dan Monson, who coached his last game for a team he put 17 seasons into, but with the way he handled everything I think he clearly won that situation, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back coaching a competitive team in the future. Ultimately, I was a sucker for the storyline on that one, and didn’t do enough due diligence to realize that Long Beach was lacking the most important thing for a cinderella team – a high volume 3-point flamethrower à la Jack Goehlke. 

As for my other picks, I’m excited to say we hit the nail on the head – the 12 seeded James Madison Dukes led wire-to-wire against Wisconsin, although they didn’t need the three-ball to do it like I predicted. Instead, they made free throws, edged out the rebounding battle, and caused absolute chaos defensively with 14 steals, 4 blocks, and 27 points off 19 Wisconsin turnovers. Unfortunately, JMU ran out of gas in the next round, getting their teeth kicked in by probably my least favorite team in the tournament – The Duke Blue Devils and their tik tok dancing point guard Jared McCain, who put up 30 points and probably went straight to the locker room afterwards to apply a fresh coat of paint on his fingernails. 

My other pick looks pretty darn boring in hindsight, but if you’re 1 seed Purdue coming off year after year of disappointment, a boring tournament is the greatest thing you can ask for. Purdue played bully-ball in both of their opening weekend games, purging their 16-seed demons with a 78-50 win over Grambling State before walking all over Utah State 106-67 in an absolute snoozefest. Zach Edey, love him or hate him (i lean towards hate), has been simply unstoppable so far in this tournament combining for an absolutely ridiculous 53 points and 35 rebounds in just two games. The dude is a freak, and even though the 7 foot 4 center seems like the type of person who can’t hold a normal conversation any more than he can hold a comfortable position in an airplane, he’s without a doubt the best player in the tournament and seems to have Purdue primed for a deep run. The Boilermakers do face a tough test in their Sweet Sixteen matchup on Friday, however, as they face a Gonzaga team that just dominated Kansas, particularly in the second half as they outscored the Jayhawks 46-24 en route to an 89-68 win. The problem Gonzaga’s going to run into is figuring out how to take Edey out of the game as much as possible by playing with tempo, as they’ve allowed him to put up some huge statlines against them in the past two years: Edey put up 23 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in Purdue’s 84-66 2022 win against the Bulldogs, and followed that up this year with a 25/14/3 performance in Purdue’s 73-63 win back in November. Purdue struggles defensively in transition, while the Zags are relatively strong when pushing the pace, so time will tell if Gonzaga’s able to speed things up enough to knock off the top team in the Midwest Region. My moneys on the team with the alien in the paint: Purdue and give me the points (-5.5).

Before I get too high and mighty after hitting on a couple of these picks, I do think it’s only fair that I mention that in the only bracket pool I have money in, I picked Auburn to win it all… so despite any indication otherwise, I do not, in fact, know ball.

Matchups we are looking forward to:

Ross: I’m not sure if this is just me hoping that UConn looks beatable at any point in this tournament, but I am looking forward to the 2023 national title rematch of UConn San Diego State on Thursday night. I think (or at least I hope) that the Aztecs haven’t forgotten the pain of last year’s national championship loss, and I’m loving Reese’s confidence in taking SDSU to the final four. 

The Illinois – Iowa State matchup is also shaping up to be a sweet game, as these two teams both looked really solid in opening weekend. Despite being favored, I’m not convinced that Iowa State’s offense can keep up with Illinois’ back court of Terrance Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask, who make up one of the best duos in the country. With that being said, Iowa State’s been on an absolute tear in the last couple of weeks, including dominant wins against Baylor (76-62) and an even more impressive victory against Houston in the Big 12 title game (69-41). Basically, I have no idea what’s going to happen in this one (per usual), which is why I’m excited to stay up way past my bedtime to watch it tip off Thursday night at 10:09pm Eastern.

Reese:
To be honest here, I think all of these games will be entertaining and close. Which is why I am most excited to see the underdog matchup for NC State. As a North Carolina native, the Pack have never been the most talked about team and it is about damn time they get some respect and recongnition. A win over Marquette would certainly achieve that. Both of these teams have thrilling offenses, Tyler Kolek is annoyingly good at basketball, but DJ Burns and DJ Horne are just as exciting to watch. If NC State can play solid defense on Marquette’s stars, we are in for a good one. Go Pack!

Final Four Predictions:

Reese: I think that the rest of the matchups this tournament are going to be entertaining and close. Each game could come down to the last second, which will make for an exciting Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. My Final Four is SDSU vs. UNC and Houston vs. Creighton. 
Ross: If UConn can outlast SDSU, they’ve still got a tough elite 8 matchup against the winner of Iowa State and Illinois, and for the sake of March I’ll take Illinois and their elite offense coming out of that gauntlet and punching their ticket to their first Final Four appearance since 2005. In the West Region, after Alabama’s performance against Grand Canyon (some of the most fun and ugly basketball I’ve ever seen), I don’t see UNC losing to either the Tide or the winner of Clemson/Arizona, so I’m going with the Tar Heels to advance. The South Region has some super exciting matchups – America’s Sweetheart DJ Burns looks pretty unstoppable, so I can see them knocking off Marquette before facing the winner of Duke/Houston. Duke hasn’t played anyone yet, despite dominating in point differential, and Houston looked beatable in their OT win against Texas A&M, so I’m going to go with my heart over my head here and count on the 11-seeded Wolfpack continuing their red-hot run into the Final Four. Finally, in a pretty chalky Midwest Region, I have to stick with my pre-tournament pick and go with Purdue running the table into the big dance, despite what will be some difficult matchups against Gonzaga and the winner of Creighton/Tennessee. So in summary, for my final four I’m going with Illinois vs. UNC, and NC State vs. Purdue, with Purdue winning it all. Ultimately, the positive aspect of a lack of any true Cinderella teams in the Sweet Sixteen is that the slate is absolutely stacked with talent, so no matter how it shakes out we should be in store for a whole lotta great basketball games this weekend.