Featuring Guest Contributor Hunter “Corb” Shields!
Welcome to The Undefeated Super Bowl Preview! We are joined by a very special guest for this one, Hunter ‘Corb’ Shields, who has helped us break down the biggest X-Factors and Question Marks for the game, as well as our favorite player and game betting props. Read along to get ready for Sunday’s matchup, and stick with us until the end to see who we’re picking for the big game:
X-Factors:
Ross: Chiefs LB Nick Bolton
Nick Bolton had a legitimate case for Super Bowl MVP in the Chiefs’ win over the Eagles last year with a game-high 9 tackles, a scoop and score touchdown to tie the game in the second quarter, and another fumble return for a touchdown that was called back on replay (although this play very easily could’ve been ruled a catch and fumble). Bolton has had an up-and-down year compared to last year, only playing in 8 regular season games due to a wrist injury that required surgery, and has at times not looked as dominant as he has previously. Bolton bounced back in a big way early in the playoffs, totaling 23 total tackles through the Chiefs’ first two matchups, but took a step backwards in the AFC Championship. He only racked up four tackles against the Ravens, and was occasionally picked on in coverage. Bolton will have some tough matchups with the 49ers stacked offense, but if he and the Chiefs defense can stop the Niners’ running game and force Brock Purdy to make plays with his arm, their #2 ranked pass defense should be the difference maker. Bolton proved last year that he’s not afraid of the bright lights, and while it will be tough to recreate last year’s performance, it wouldn’t surprise me if the University of Missouri product had another monster game.
Reese: 49ers QB Brock Purdy
There is a case to be made that Brock Purdy is the most important player in Sunday’s big game. Purdy had an intriguing regular season, highlighted as a potential MVP candidate in the eyes of some viewers and in the eyes of others, an overrated product of the players around him. I think there is an element of both, similar to what the great Cam Newton discusses on his podcast. Purdy has found mixed success in the playoffs this year, throwing for 519 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and completing 61.4% of his passes. Purdy needs to showcase elite game management on Sunday by taking care of the ball, getting it out quickly to playmakers, and pushing the ball downfield. He does not need to be the Mahomes of San Francisco but rather, play a complete game against one of the league’s toughest defenses. If Purdy can avoid mistakes and command the offense, the 49ers will remain in the game and contend for an opportunity to hoist the Lombardi trophy among falling confetti in Las Vegas.
Corb: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
For years Kyle Shannahan was able to take any running back off the street and make them look like a stud. When the Panthers decided to throw in the towel for the next 100 seasons (sorry Reese) start rebuilding for the future and trade McCaffrey to the 49ers, Shannahan’s running back situation completely changed. The upgrade Shannahan got with McCaffrey is equivalent to driving a 2002 Honda Accord that might not start each morning to being gifted a brand new Lamborghini from a franchise with a scumbag owner. I know Brock Purdy has put up good stats this season, but there is simply no scenario where he outplays Patrick Mahomes. This 49ers team is completely reliant on their ability to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands, which has always seemed to work as they have ranked top in the league in yards after the catch and yards after contact since Shanahan took over (Disclosure: this stat is from my brain). As most sane Americans, I am rooting for the 49ers, so my hope is that the 49ers run it down the Chiefs throat, which they have shown they are more than capable of this season. That is why McCaffrey is my X-Factor, because if they are not able to win at the line of scrimmage and McCaffrey does not get his touches, there is a very real possibility of the Kansas City Chiefs turning this game into a blowout.
Biggest Question Marks:
Ross: Kyle Shanahan Coaching Big Games
It’s no secret that 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has struggled mightily in big games. Shanahan was the Offensive Coordinator for the greatest Super Bowl collapse in history, when his Atlanta Falcons blew a 28-3 lead partly due to poor offensive play calling. Four years ago, Shanahan had a chance to redeem himself in Super Bowl LIV as Head Coach of the 49ers, as his team took a 20-10 lead into the 4th Quarter against the Chiefs. Things spiraled out of control for the Niners late, as the Chiefs rattled off 21 unanswered points in the closing minutes, to ultimately win 31-10. Shanahan was asked about his previous Super Bowl woes during media week, and while he acknowledges that both losses still sting, he said he isn’t haunted by either and feels nothing but excitement for the chance at redemption.
Reese: 49ers Pass Rush
The Niners had a solid regular season defensively, ranking 8th in yards allowed and 3rd in points allowed (right behind the Chiefs). They supplemented those rankings with 48 total sacks, tied for 6th in the league with the Jets, Chargers, and Buccaneers. Despite these positive notes, the 49ers have struggled in the playoffs with only 2 sacks, both of which came from Nick Bosa. The acquisition of Chase Young was supposed to propel the pass rush to the stratosphere, but he has been invisible. Bosa will show up with his A-game but the other edge rushers need to add pressure and tally sacks on the best quarterback in the league. If not, Mahomes will virtually control the game, scrambling and turning offensive breakdowns into six points. With star guard Joe Thuney ruled out for the game, Javon Kinlaw, Nick Bosa, and Erik Armstead have to take advantage of backup Nick Allegretti.
Corb: 49ers QB Brock Purdy
I want to go on the record saying that I like Brock Purdy, and I can understand why it might not seem that way based on what I have written and am about to write. This is a quarterback’s league, and frankly it is pretty much impossible to win a Super Bowl with a bad performance from the QB. Purdy being my question mark is based on the fact that we know what Patrick Mahomes is capable of in big games, but we do not have that same privilege with Purdy. The core of the Chiefs (minus Tyreek) have won a lot of meaningful games these past couple years, and in the big moments, pulled off some great finishes that were similar in fashion to what my beloved Patriots and Tom Brady would do in their crucial games. My question mark is that I am unsure whether Purdy is at the level where if the 49ers need a score at a crucial point in the game, they will be able to put the ball in his hands and say “go get us a touchdown”. This is not an insult to Purdy because this is something rare in the NFL, as I would say there are only three active QBs that are at this level (Mahomes, Burrows, and Allen). Unfortunately for Brock, he happens to be going up against one of those three QBs. So here is to Purdy turning left 30 times to hand the ball off to McCaffrey and throwing 40 screen passes to Deebo, and the hope that he can make that one crucial play in crunch time.*
*Editor’s note: I’m not quite sure what this sentence means
Best Prop Bets:
Ross: Travis Kelce o72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Reese: Jauan Jennings Anytime Touchdown (+750) — I’m hammering it
Corb: Christian McCaffrey O89.5 (-125) — Wanted to take anytime touchdown but it was -225 and theres no VALUE in that. I guess the sportsbooks are on to me.
Best Game Special Bets:
Ross: Coin Toss: TAILS (-104) — The coin toss has landed on tails in 7 of the past 10 Super Bowls. Don’t overthink this one, tails never fails.
Reese: Coin Toss: HEADS (-104) — Don’t listen to Ross and his “stats” . Triple Crown- Most Passing/Receiving/Rushing: Mahomes/Rashee/CMC (+820)
(p.s. As long as the Gatorade color isn’t cool blue*, I’m happy)
*Reese really does not like Cool Blue Gatorade
Corb: Gatorade Color: YELLOW (+300) — Old reliable. I honestly cannot tell you what the color has been in recent Super Bowls but Yellow is the best flavor
Game/Score Predictions:
Ross: Kansas City 31, San Francisco 24
Reese: Kansas City 27, San Francisco 23
Corb: San Francisco 28, KC 24 — For the record I want San Francisco to win. If I was a betting man I would throw money on the Chiefs, but you gotta follow the heart*
*Corb is attempting to play both sides here so he can’t lose either way. Very savvy move.
Share your predictions, picks and thoughts for Sunday’s game in the comment section below, and let us know if you’d like to see more contributions out of our honored guest Corb!
Reese Ryan, Ross Danforth, and Guest Contributor Hunter Shields